Masatami Takimoto,a V.P. of power train development at Toyota, stated that current efforts by Toyota’s design teams to reduce costs of the key hybrid components will most likely result in the cost of hybrid powertrains to be equivalent to that of a gasoline powertrain by 2010. For years, competing automakers have argued that Toyota is selling its hybrid vehicles at a loss or for very little profit. However, if you look at Toyota’s projected hybrid sales this year (expected to be just shy of 1,000,000 vehicles) it’s clear that Toyota certainly isn’t losing money. Currently Toyota’s production of hybrids is limited only by demand.

Officials at Toyota have also been quoted as saying that expensive lithium-ion battery packs are available for installation in a hybrid vehicle at “any time”, and without a substantial cost penalty.

This is the next evolution of hybrid technology — lithium ion battery packs can hold 2 or 3 times the energy of the current nickel-metal-hydride (NMH) battery packs, will last longer, and will weigh less. Most importantly for future Tundra owners, the use of lithium ion battery packs allows economic charging from a much larger engine than the current technology. Toyota and Isuzu are expected to make an announcement about an Isuzu diesel hybrid powertrain in July of this year. Even if Toyota doesn’t debut a diesel hybrid Tundra by 2009, the transmission used in these trucks could be adapted to a Tundra.

 Toyota’s admission that they have a lithium ion battery pack ready for hybrid use is an indication that an oversized battery pack could be installed in a Tundra and offer its owner improved fuel economy over a long trip, even if towing or hauling. Remember, lithium ion battery packs can store 2 - 3 times as much energy as the current technology.

Toyota could insert a fairly large battery pack into this vehicle without substantially reducing the payload rating or performance. The debut of the FT-HS, a 400hp hybrid sports car concept, is proof that Toyota has a transmission capable of handling a very powerful hybrid motor. The kind of powerful hybrid that would be needed in a Tundra.

Toyota’s oversized brake system lends itself to being replaced by a regenerative braking system. Obviously, light weight is key in a hybrid.

Dodge’s new Hemi will debut in 2008 with a hybrid option. Toyota must respond. The market demand for a hybrid truck, even if it only improved fuel economy by 25%, would be HUGE. Remember that Toyota said by 2010 all of their current gasoline powertrains could be replaced by hybrid powertrains at no additional cost? That’s Toyota’s way of saying they could bring a hybrid Tundra to market at the same cost as the current Tundra. Put another way, Toyota’s risk of developing a hybrid Tundra is reduced if they don’t have to charge a premium for the technology. As long as the hybrid option sells in volume it will be a profitable choice for Toyota.

We think the first hybrid Tundras will be CrewMaxs. Since the value of a hybrid Tundra will be limited for anyone doing constant towing and hauling, you’ll still see the 5.7L non-hybrid as an option. Also, expect to see the smaller single cab Tundra V6 offered in a hybrid. Bottomline: A hybrid version of the Tundra will debut in 2009 as a 2010 model.